NFL coaches - who's right, who's wrong, who's left and who's leaving

Looking at the standings right now, it's hard to predict that any NFL coaches won't see the end of the season in their current jobs. Yes, Cleveland is beyond awful, but Eric Mangini is in his first season, and if owner Randy Lerner has any sense, he'll at least give Mangini another year to build something in the empty space where the Browns should be. Jim Zorn's hot-seat at 3-8 Washington has long since melted, but the options to replace him from within are frightening - Greg Blache, whose defense has been decent, but has struggled mightily vs. the pass, Sherman Smith, whose offense has been dismal (25th in the NFL), or temporary play-caller Sherman Lewis (Daniel Snyder knows you can never have too many Shermans (Shermen?)), who has had little impact.

So its likely that the in-season firings in the NFL will begin and end with Buffalo's Dick Jauron, who shockingly, couldn't win with an offensive line which is mainly theoretical, and a QB who can't make a throw beyond the end of his own nose.

The way I see it, after week 12 of the NFL season, the coaches who are sweating:

The dead men walking

Jim Zorn, Washington Redskins
This one is so inevitable, it's surprising that Zorn isn't just doing bizarre stuff for fun. I would. They can't score points on the ground or through the air, and they can't stop opposing passers. The run defense has been good, but what's the point in half a defense? It's like digging half a moat. Given the success of Hunter Smith, the 'Skins punter, on trick plays, I'd advocate making the fake punt their base formation on offense. The guy is a dual threat that gives defensive co-ordinators nightmares. With the meddling of owner Daniel Snyder, and the ineffectual kowtowing of GM Vinny Cerrato, attracting a candidate who can turn this ship around is unlikely.

Perry Fewell, Buffalo Bills
I know that Fewell seems to have his players playing hard for him, and that makes him a possibility for the head coach gig (especially given the penny-pinching nature of the Bills), but has no-one realized that this always happens? I remember people saying "Tom Cable seems to have his players playing hard for him," and "Jim Haslett seems to have his players playing hard for him." The next thing you know, you're conceding 49 points at home against the Patriots. Perry Fewell is not the answer. Drafting a left tackle and a QB was the answer, but the Bills figured they couldn't live without DE Aaron Maybin and his 6 tackles, 2 assists and 0 sacks so far. This franchise badly needs leadership in the draft, because three successes in the last three drafts (Jairus Byrd, Leodis McKelvin, Paul Posluszny) is a reflection of how poorly the franchise is performing overall.

Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders
It's difficult to do this without making Al Davis jokes, but that's just what I'm attempting. Wish me luck. Cable is a victim of his own behavior (whatever happened with Randy Hanson, the bad press surrounding his history of domestic violence), a quarterback disaster approaching Ryan Leaf proportions (JaMarcus Russell's completion percentage has actually fallen each year since he was a rookie, while his interceptions have risen inversely), and dismal drafting that beggars belief (the closest I could find to a draft success in the last 5 years was Zach Miller, an above-average TE). The Raiders roster has precisely two players you'd want on your team: CB Nnamdi Asomugha (best press corner in the league, hands-down), and punter Shane Lechler. Seriously. That the punter even enters the conversation should be enough to make Al Davis step down immediately, and burn those damn sweatsuits. Crap. It's impossible not to make a joke about him. The guy is a walking punch-line. A leathery, leathery punch line. In conclusion, the problems here go far beyond Cable, who, in his defense, gets some competitive play from his team intermittently. But the coach is there to take the fall for Davis, and fall he will.

Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans
Kubiak's failing has not been bottomless ineptitude, as with Jauron or Zorn, but rather barren, endless mediocrity. He has taken a team overflowing with talent and made it considerably less than the sum of its parts. Head coaches dream about offenses with two elite pass-catchers like Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. Kevin Walter's no slouch as a second receiver, and Steve Slaton is a dual threat at RB. The offensive line mostly keeps QB Matt Schaub clean (21 sacks taken is good for 12th in the league). So why is this team 5-6, and flattering to deceive yet again? Well, they can't run the ball or stop the run, which is a pretty good recipe for going 8-8 again, at best. They could fire defensive co-ordinator Frank Bush Sr., but their defensive problems boil down to a lack of talent on the line, which is a draft issue, which is the domain of the head coach. Also, they lose twice to the Colts every year, which pisses everyone off. When Kubiak goes, it will be entirely justified. He's holding the team back, rather than the other way around, a la Oakland.

The possibilities

John Fox, Carolina Panthers
Have you seen the Panthers this year? They are awful in just about every phase of the game. The biggest problem here is Jake Delhomme's contract. Delhomme has to go. He just can't make the throws anymore. Unfortunately, Carolina gave him a massive new contract last offseason, in the hope that it would rip a hole in the space-time continuum and make his elbow injury not have happened. This dastardly plan was foiled, and now the Panthers are stuck with the worst starting QB in the league (yes, I now think Bruce Gradkowski and Brady Quinn are better), and a head coach who is inextricably linked with the decision to award him his mindbending contract. One has to go. If the franchise is smart, they will find a way to shuffle Delhomme out the door (possibly into retirement), and keep Fox, who has done a good job, and deserves a shot at turning it around. I'm not sure they're smart.

Eric Mangini, Cleveland Browns
The Browns are bad. Historically bad. They rank dead last in offense (11 points and 231 yards per game), and 31st in defense (giving up 25 points and 393 yards per game). Think about that. They're losing, on average, by 2 touchdowns. They average a comfortable loss. Somehow, they managed to win a game, that 6-3 atrocity in Buffalo in week 5. As bad as they may be, to fix something that's built wrong, you have to tear it down. That's what Eric Mangini has done. He's gotten rid of Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards, neither of Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson will be starting there next year, Jamal Lewis is retiring, and the staff has been completely overhauled. If you're going to give the guy a mandate to tear it down and rebuild, you can't let him do half the job and fire him. As much as I think Mangini in Cleveland will be reminiscent of Marinelli in Detroit (high-character guys playing low-talent football), you have to at least let the story play out. The danger for Mangini is whether owner Randy Lerner will have the guts to ignore the calls of the fans and media to fire him.

Wade Phillips, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are in a state of flux, which given the age of their roster, is not a good thing. At times they've looked good, at others they've looked Browns-esque. They've somehow dragged themselves to 8-3, which is frankly astonishing to anyone who has seen a significant amount of Cowboys football this season. They have been helped by the unexpected weakness of their division (the aforementioned Redskins, plus the unpredictable Eagles and slumping Giants). This year has the faint odor of last chances around it, both for Wade Phillips as head coach, and for some of the members of the roster (LT Flozell Adams, LB Keith Brooking, and C Andre Gurode are noticeably in decline). Surely, this is the year when Phillips and Romo have to achieve something, right? Well, we thought last year was too.

The outliers

Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears
As much as his Super Bowl appearance adds luster to his resume, there's only so much awful that a major franchise like Chicago can take. We all thought that the only thing missing from the Bears last year was a legit QB. Well now they have one, and the franchise has taken a step back. The defense has turned from a strength into a weakness (Brian Urlacher made their Tampa 2 system work, and without him, it's a giant liability). Matt Forte has regressed (the Bears are last in the league in rush yards per game), and Cutler has thrown 20 picks and only 16 TDs. I think Smith survives, however, and OC Ron Turner and DC Bob Babich take the bullets for him.

Tom Coughlin, New York Giants
I know he won a Super Bowl two short years ago, but with the experience, talent, and systems in place in New York, 6-5 is a long way from good enough. Like in Chicago, everyone has taken a step back this year, from their much-heralded lines (the trenches on both side of the ball are underperforming), to Eli Manning (although his plantar fasciitis is a mitigating circumstance), and particularly RB Brandon Jacobs. When did Jacobs stop running downhill? When did he stop punishing safeties? Again, like in Chicago, Coughlin gets another life, even if the Giants slump to 6-10. Co-ordinators Kevin Gilbride and Bill Sheridan are in the crosshairs instead.