Chicago Bears defensive end Gaines Adams died this morning in Greenwood, South Carolina, aged only 26. His death appears to have been caused by an enlarged heart, which triggered a heart attack. I remember seeing Adams in his first season in Tampa Bay, and thinking that he had a bright future in the game.
Adams, as he should be remembered, sacking Kyle Orton
The dynasty. The greatest team of the decade. The team with the perfect regular season. The unreal offense. The legends: Brady, Moss, Welker.
The guys who got completely dominated by the Ravens, and are one-and-done in the playoffs this year.
Something is rotten in the state of Massachusetts, and head coach Bill Belichick has eight months to figure out what it is. When evaluating a team, you need to break it down into three key areas: players, coaching, and scheme. So let's do it.
"We need more videotape"
Players
New England is a team, like any other, with strengths and weaknesses, but they seem to be magnified here. They have amazing strengths - the best 1-2 combination of wide receivers in the NFL, an all-world quarterback, some outstanding players on the offensive line, one of the best nose tackles in the NFL, and an excellent young inside linebacker and defensive signal-caller. They also have some glaring flaws. Their running back stable is weak, their outside linebackers have disappointed, and their secondary is one of the worst in the entire league. So how do you begin to fix it?
Offense
The Patriots have 4 selections in the first two rounds of the 2010 draft (22, 44, 47, 53). They're in a good position to make some moves, and Belichick excels at this. I'd be looking at packaging some of those picks and offering them to a rebuilding team (St Louis, for example) in exchange for an established running back (Steven Jackson), or trying to make a deal with Carolina for Jonathan Stewart. It's entirely possible that neither team would want to play ball, however. The current RB roster features Laurence Maroney (lacks burst, doesn't run with any anger) Fred Taylor (hurt most of the year), Sammy Morris (the definition of average) and Kevin Faulk (a third down pass catcher only). Something needs to be done here. As far as I'm concerned, Maroney should be cut. Taylor gets another shot to see if he can do it if he's healthy. Morris can stay as a cheap backup. Faulk plays an important role. What's missing? A number one option - they're a bunch of role players and backups. A legitimate rushing threat would allow the Patriots to run some power O runs, and take the pressure off of Brady, Moss and Welker. It was too easy to make the 2009 Patriots one-dimensional.
Laurence Maroney delivers a vicious fluff-arm before hitting a linebacker, getting stuffed for no gain and turning to dust
In the WRs, Moss and Welker are obviously all-world, regardless of what a few hacks muttered about Moss around week 15. The problem is at no. 3. Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis both tried and failed to replace the underrated Jabar Gaffney. Julian Edelman is a capable backup for Welker, but the other receivers (Isaiah Stanback, Brandon Tate, Matthew Slater, Sam Aiken) are either wildly inexperienced, or special teamers only. At least one more player, preferably a deep threat, is needed here. The bad news is that Bill Belichick has a miserable record of drafting receivers. The hits: Deion Branch. The misses: Chad Jackson, P.K Sam, Bethel Johnson. My favourite is Jackson - they traded their 52nd and 75th picks in '06 for the Packers' 36th pick to take him. He flamed out. The Packers used those picks to get Greg Jennings and Jason Spitz, both of whom are still on the roster. Jennings has been stellar at times, Spitz is a solid backup at center. Let no-one tell you that Belichick never blows it. A better option might be to pick up another WR in free agency. Malcom Floyd of the Chargers will be a free agent, and is still rough around the edges, but could be an awesome weapon. Antonio Bryant has shown that he can be huge, given the right QB. The free agency situation will become clearer in the coming weeks.
Chad Jackson. Not pictured: healthy hamstring, groin or ACL
In the rest of the offense, the o-line is in the upper echelon of the league, with guards Logan Mankins and Stephen Neal particularly good. The TEs are weak, but the Patriots use their tight ends primarily as chip blockers. I'd like to take a second to predict that '09 second-rounder Sebastian Vollmer will soon be regarded as one of the top OTs in the game, and will lead to LT Matt Light looking for alternative employment sooner rather than later.
Sebastian Vollmer. Remember this man. He's about to make your best pass-rusher disappear.
Defense
There are much more significant problems on this side of the ball. Starting up front, getting NT Vince Wilfork a new deal has to be the first priority. With him, this defense is disappointing. Without him, it would be disastrous. The DEs are above-average, now Richard Seymour is gone. Seymour was awesome at times, but was past his peak. Getting a first-round pick for him will seem like a good deal when we're looking back in a few years, especially since Oakland has a habit of making great players disappear. Ty Warren can be very effective when healthy, but he's rarely that these days. Mike Wright and Jarvis Green are both able backup types, pressed into service more frequently in 2009. Draft help here would be good. Carlos Dunlap of Florida, perhaps?
Vince Wilfork. It's impossible not to call him a big, fat bastard. But you know, not to his face.
The first major problem area is in the linebackers, where only Jerod Mayo is unquestionably starter material. Even he was less effective in 2009, as he missed most of four games with a sprained MCL, and appeared tentative at times after his return. Still, he's the defensive signal-caller in only his second year, and will make many Pro Bowls in the future. That's where the good news ends. The other inside 'backer is undrafted '08 rookie Gary Guyton, who sometimes looks like a diamond in the rough, and at other times looks like, well, an undrafted guy. A superb athlete, but his football smarts have yet to catch up. Mayo's physical problems and Guyton's mental ones led to the Patriots rushing defense getting gashed for innumerable big plays in 2009. The main problem involved them not stepping up to fill gaps and support Wilfork and the DEs, leading to them giving up big runs, as Ray Rice ably demonstrated last weekend.
The biggest problem in the front seven is with the outside linebackers. Adalius Thomas, one of 2007's splashiest free-agent acquisitions, was a healthy scratch on more than one occasion, missing a team meeting, criticising head coach Bill Belichick, and tallying only three sacks. It's unlikely he'll be on the roster in 2010. On the other side, Tully Banta-Cain was a backup in his previous New England stint, hardly set the world on fire in San Francisco, and now he's a starter? I don't buy it, but his 9.5 sacks earn him another look next year. There's also Derrick Burgess, who was a waste of money, but at least not much money. 5 sacks was not enough for a guy looking to resurrect his career as a premier pass-rusher. The backup there is Pierre Woods, a guy who should be a special-teams only player. He's like a lower-quality version of Guyton.
The answer here is to draft better-quality linebackers. On the inside, perhaps Florida's Brandon Spikes. Additionally, the Arizona Cardinals' Karlos Dansby is a free agent, and one hell of a player, but Belichick may feel that he's been burned once by a big-money free agent linebacker, and he's not going to let it happen again. Here's a look at Spikes, who'll probably be coming off the board by round two on draft day.
On the outside, Jerry Hughes of Texas Christian will probably be a second-round guy too, and has registered 26 sacks in the last 2 seasons. They could try to move up and take Sergio Kindle of Texas, but I'm figuring he'll be gone by the 15th pick. They could trade up, but I'm not sure Kindle is "can't miss" enough to warrant it. He reminds me of Buffalo's Aaron Maybin, who was last seen on milk cartons in upstate NY. Even so, here's a video of a really pretty sack by Kindle on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts.
New England ranked 23rd in sacks in 2009, and this played into the next problem - the secondary. If you don't get enough pass rush, you'll give the opposing quarterback enough time to victimize your cornerbacks. This happened with alarming frequency in 2009, as the Patriots secondary gave up too many big plays, including 8 plays of 20 yards or more against the Saints in week 12. The starters at cornerback are Leigh Bodden and Jonathan Wilhite - both of whom are, generously, no better than league-average. Wilhite is only a second-year guy, and has a lot of time to improve. Bodden peaked with the Browns in 2007, but was a capable-enough short-term solution this year. New England has to get more from second-rounder Darius Butler in 2010 - he was a ball-hawk in college, and showed some promise in '09. Backup Shawn Springs is washed up, and most likely won't be back next year. All he does is take playing time away from youngsters Wilhite, Butler, and Terrence Wheatley. In the safeties, Brandon Meriweather made the Pro Bowl as a replacement, but I still think he'd be better at free safety than strong safety. This would allow him to keep the play in front of him, and let Patrick Chung on to the field as a strong safety. Chung saw way too much action on special teams for a 34th overall pick. This would also leave James Sanders and Brandon McGowan as backups, where they should be.
In the draft, I like Perrish Cox of Oklahoma State. He's a physical guy, and is a big threat in the return game, another area in which the Patriots struggled in 2009. Sooner fans may want to skip the next video. Dunta Robinson of the Houston Texans is a free agent, but I'm not sure he's worth the salary he wants. Belichick never pays his cornerbacks anyway.
Coaching & Scheme
Bill Belichick is no sacred cow around here - he's certainly not above criticism for his work, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots just fired/mutually terminated/accepted the resignation of/flushed defensive co-ordinator Dean Pees (whose name surely begs the question "where?"), but the fact is that this is Darth Hoodie's defense, and Pees was just running it. Not running it particularly well, sure, but just running it. I don't see an obvious answer on who's going to replace him. I was leaning towards Al Groh, but he's just joined Georgia Tech as DC. Internally, line coach Pepper Johnson (another great name) and linebackers coach Matt Patricia are candidates. The bigger problem is that it seems Belichick's defensive scheme, once state-of-the-art, is now outdated. The defense hasn't really been good since 2006, and there have been a significant number of talented players playing in it since then. It might be time for Belichick to let go, and bring in a guy who can make some changes. I'd stick with the overall shape of the defense, but someone like Dick Jauron or Jim Mora Jr. could bring a fresh approach. Both are seen as 'damaged goods' after losing head coach gigs recently, but have track records of building good defenses.
On the offensive side, I'm a firm believer that Belichick needs a strong offensive co-ordinator to curb his naturally passive/aggressive instincts. Without Josh McDaniels, we would never have seen Randy Moss in New England. Bill O'Brien is in no position to overrule his boss on offensive issues, leading to a step backwards offensively this year. O'Brien isn't even the OC, he's just the WRs coach and play-caller. Too many times in '09, the Pats dialed up a deep pass play on third down; going for 56 yards when 6 were needed. Charlie Weis would have been good, but he'll be waddling on the Kansas City touchline in 2010. I don't see a change coming here this year, but it would help.
New Kansas City offensive co-ordinator, Rodney Dangerfield
To sum up, the Patriots need to draft a defensive end, an outside linebacker, an inside linebacker, and a cornerback. They need to trade for a running back. They need to pick up a free-agent deep threat WR. They need to start Patrick Chung at strong safety, and move Brandon Meriweather to free safety. They need an offensive co-ordinator and a defensive co-ordinator.
Sounds like a mess? This is on a team that finished 10-6 and made the playoffs - be thankful I didn't write about the St Louis Rams instead.
And it's from GQ, of all places. Jason Fagone investigates Marvin Harrison, The Dirtiest Player. They may have been bad, but at least Michael Vick, Chris Henry, Tank Johnson, Lawrence Taylor, Lawrence Phillips, Plaxico Burress, Pacman Jones and Ray Lewis never killed anyone. Hold on, scratch that last one.
Jim Zorn expresses his feelings at not having to coach Jason Campbell anymore
Jim Zorn
Got fired and replaced by Mike Shanahan this week, and it was never in any doubt. I'd credit myself with predicting this one, but that would be like predicting the sun rising. He'll be back in the game soon enough, probably as a offensive co-ordinator, perhaps in Seattle, where he was QB coach from 2001-2007, and a QB himself from 1976-1984. As an aside, I also derided GM Vinny Cerrato, who fell on his sword a couple of weeks later. Score!
Cannot: turn around Bills franchise. Can: probably fuck you up
Perry Fewell
Ralph Wilson cleared the decks in Buffalo this week, firing the entire coaching staff. Fewell has interviewed for the head coach's job, but he is ranked somewhere alongside Dennis Green and Rich Kotite in his chances of actually getting it. He'll probably be a defensive co-ordinator next year, most likely with the New York Giants. Again, this was too easy to call.
"And by next offseason I'll be this fat"
Eric Mangini
This is the first one I'm giving myself credit for. I said "If you're going to give the guy a mandate to tear it down and rebuild, you can't let him do half the job and fire him." This week, new Browns team president (football czar? Parcellinator?) Mike Holmgren spared Mangini, saying "In my opinion, Eric has gained the respect and admiration of players, coaches and others in the organization, and with him continuing to lead the team I feel that we are headed in the right direction." You can't argue with winning the last 4 games - the Browns looked better in every phase, fought hard, and looked like they believed in themselves again. Mangini earned it, and I predicted it.
Do the funky Coughlin
Tom Coughlin
I said Coughlin would survive, and "Co-ordinators Kevin Gilbride and Bill Sheridan are in the crosshairs instead." Sheridan was fired this week, after one season on the job, and a defense that gave up 40 points on five occasions. Gilbride can count himself lucky, although his punishment may be replacing...
Tom Cable
Not gone yet, but in the waiting room. The fact that the Raiders' 5-11 mess was regarded as somewhat of a success tells you everything about the reduced expectations in Oakland these days. JaMarcus Russell was awful in every conceivable way, they couldn't run or pass with any consistency, and the defense, usually their saving grace, was sub-par. Cable was better than Lane Kiffin or the second coming of Art Shell, so he still has a chance to survive. Not a good chance, though.
I got it wrong: Gary Kubiak survived, thanks to a late-season run of four wins. His team showed improvement, but there has to be a playoff appearance next year, surely... Wade Phillips takes a hot team into the playoffs, and with a decent run, he's coming back next year. Saved by a clutch December from Romo and the boys; who'da thunk it... John Fox is safe for a while thanks to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but I'll say it again: Jake Delhomme will get you fired...
The jury's still out: Lovie Smith looks like he's staying, but I was right about Ron Turner. He'll likely be replaced by USC offensive co-ordinator and Cutler favourite Jeremy Bates...
Not pictured: sense of shame, remaining shred of dignity
47 year-old Evander Holyfield is lacing them up again, to face Francois Botha in Uganda two weeks from now. It's for the WBF Heavyweight Title, which I believe is made from tin foil and duct tape. During his late-career, ahem, 'renaissance', Holyfield has lost to such pugilistic luminaries as lumbering Russian Nikolay Valuev, and slightly-less-lumbering Russian Sultan Ibragimov. There's a lesson here, kids. Having eleven goddamn children is not all that wise.
Richard Naylor: "You ask any Leeds fan and they'll say we're as big as Manchester United." It seems unnecessary to point out that this tells you everything you need to know about Leeds United fans, their intelligence, dubious parentage, suspect relationship with farm animals, etc. etc.
OK, not bums exactly. The Pro Bowl rosters were released yesterday, and as usual, some names just leap out as being undeserving.
Jason PetersOT, Philadephia Eagles
Somehow, Peters has acquired the reputation of being a great offensive tackle. He hasn't been good since 2007, his last good season with the Bills. In 2008, he wanted a new deal, was as resilient as wet toilet paper, and almost got poor Trent Edwards killed. This season, he's been league-average. And now he's starting in the Pro Bowl, and Donald Penn of the Buccaneers, the best OT in the NFC, will sit at home.
As an aside, Penn is better than Jonathan Stinchcomb of the Saints, and Bryant McKinnie of the Vikings, both of whom are going to Miami. McKinnie got eaten alive by Julius Peppers in week 15, but that was after Pro Bowl voting closed. He's lucky. If he'd done that in week 12, he'd have had no chance. Stinchcomb is above-average, but is that what the Pro Bowl is about?
Asante SamuelCB, Philadelphia Eagles
I honestly swear to you, I don't have a hate on for the Eagles - actually, I think they've overcome some difficulties to have a great season, especially on offense. Asante Samuel making the Pro Bowl is purely a selection based on numbers - he has 9 interceptions. That's great, but the stats don't show that Samuel is an ineffective, arm-tackling half-asser when playing the run, and that his love of jumping routes means he gets beaten by double moves on a fairly regular basis. I suppose it comes down to my personal preference for bump-and-run corners like Nnamdi Asomugha of the Raiders, but I'd like any defensive player on my team to be able to tackle. It doesn't seem like a lot to ask. Either Samuel's teammate Sheldon Brown, or Brent Grimes of the Falcons would have been better real-life choices.
Ray LewisLB, Baltimore Ravens
This one is purely a reputation pick. Lewis made it to age 34 without showing any signs of decline, which is thoroughly remarkable for a high-impact player like a middle linebacker. 2009, though, was the year age started to take its toll, and it has been reflected in the overall play of the Ravens defense. It's not a unit to be feared anymore, despite having all its major pieces still in place, particularly in the front seven. Lewis is still a good player, and one I'd want on my team for many reasons, but 2009 was not a year where he reached a Pro Bowl level of performance. Although you probably haven't seen a lot of him, Kirk Morrison of the Raiders has been quietly excellent all season, and although he couldn't have replaced Lewis (wrong conference), it's scandalous that Washington's London Fletcher still hasn't made a Pro Bowl. The guy is the Redskins D, no matter what certain fat, underperforming nose tackles might think.
Notes
Not sure about DeAngelo Williams - he's great, but I think Frank Gore of the 49ers is more important to his team, and has made a bigger impact on their overall record this year... I know it's sacrilege, but does Adrian Peterson really deserve it? He's been less than stellar in recent weeks, thanks to the pass-first play calling... You probably won't find a bigger Wes Welker fan than me, but I think Randy Moss is more important to the Patriots - without him, Welker wouldn't be looking at 130+ receptions this year. Moss clears out the safeties and opens space for Welker underneath. Plus, Moss has played hurt all season... Jake Long: good, but not great yet... Ed Reed has missed quite a few games, and has been less than his usual self due to injuries - is he Pro Bowl material this year? I say no, but Brandon Meriweather can justifiably feel cheated to miss out... Last one: Giants LB/special teamer Chase Blackburn should be in there, he's a difference-maker who plays ridiculously hard. Every special teams coach in the league would love to have him. He makes plays on defense, too...
