On the dead CBA

Let's imagine for a moment that you work at a coffee shop. This coffee shop is making more money than it ever has before. More customers than ever are buying coffee, and the prices are the highest they've ever been. Things are going great, for the most part. I mean, occasionally someone gets burned by the coffee machine, but that's the risk of working in a coffee shop, right?

Then one day, the owner tells you that he want to cut your pay by 18%, because he's not making enough money. And not only that, he want to make your work day 12.5% longer, and reduce pay even more for new employees. Once you've calmed down, and fought off the urge to shove a venti cup up his ass, wouldn't you ask for some proof? I mean, he's claiming poverty, and that doesn't tally at all with the reality you see around you every day. The other branches in Dallas and New York just opened fancy new stores.

So you ask to see some proof that he's not making enough money. No, he says. You have to trust me. I have the right to deny you access to my accounts. Sure, you say. Of course you do; you run a private enterprise. But I also have the right to not let you cut my pay by 18%, while increasing my hours. If you want me to work more for less pay, this is a vital step in the process. I can't trust you on blind faith alone.

You have to, he says. But the accounts of that socially-owned coffee shop in Green Bay show that they're making cash hand over fist, you say. And they're in the smallest coffee market in the country.

No, he says finally. No deal. I'm locking the doors.


This is the ultimate reason why we might not have an NFL in 2011. And if we do, it will be at a price that the owners won't like, since the players will win in court.

And who loses the most, in both eventualities?

The fans.

Jay Cutler: Not Very Good

 

"Triple coverage? No problem!"

A great read: Ron Jaworski analyses all 26 interceptions thrown by Jay Cutler in 2009, and finds that most of them were poor reads, awful decisions, or caused by unreliable throwing mechanics. Two first rounders and a third rounder, right? This guy badly needs a coach - I hope Mike Martz can do something with him in 2010, because there's a lot of talent going to waste there.

Roster bonuses: the worried men

Roster bonuses are not often discussed in depth by the sports media, but they play a huge role in who gets cut in the preseason. Roster bonuses are payments (usually of the enormous variety) paid to players who are on their team's roster on a specific date. Some of the most significant roster bonuses are listed below. Some of the men on the list will get cut. Some will restructure their deals. Some will get paid in a major way.

Lito Sheppard, CB, New York Jets

 

Lito Sheppard: worth it? In a word, no

Bonus: $10 million
Due Date: March 10th

This is a staggering amount of money for a guy who is the second-best cornerback on his team (All-Pro Darrelle Revis mans the other side). Sheppard this week told Manish Mehta of the Newark Star-Ledger that he thinks he's "worth it." I don't know what tape he watched this season, but it can't have been one of Sheppard, 2009 vintage.  I'm not sure how this will go down, but the New York Jets will not be paying Lito Sheppard ten million dollars on March 10th. Whether he gets cut or restructures is up in the air. One factor in play here is that the Jets don't really have another corner they can promote to starter - nickel back Dwight Lowery is solid, but severely lacking in speed. In a division with Randy Moss, Lee Evans and Ted Ginn Jr., that's a killer.

Thomas Jones, RB, New York Jets

 

Jones spots the writing on the wall

Bonus: $3 million
Due Date: March 10th

Staying in New Jersey, the Jets also have to deal with chronic contract-demander Thomas Jones. He'll be 32 come the start of the 2010 season, and despite another good season in 2009 (his sixth straight 1300-yard season), has to be worried about his job security. Rookie Shonn Greene bagged 304 yards and 2 TDs in the Jets' surprising playoff run, and seems ready to be a featured back. This seems to spell the end for Jones in New York. He'll catch on elsewhere, however, since he's still healthy and productive. He'll go down as one of the most underrated, underappreciated running backs in NFL history - his 4.0 career ypc makes him statistically better than Floyd Little and John Riggins, both of whom are in the Hall of Fame.

Stacy Andrews, OG, Philadelphia Eagles

 

The Andrews brothers: making momma proud

 Bonus: $4.1 million
Due Date: April 4th

Underperforming tackle becomes injured underperforming tackle, becomes injured underperforming tackle-turned-guard? This guy is worth over four million dollars in bonuses? He was a healthy scratch more than once last year, and was replaced by Max Jean-Gilles several times due to his need to improve his pass-protection techniques . He started a total of two games. The team takes no cap hit if they release him. I say Andrews restructures significantly to gave him the chance to compete for a starting job, and potentially play alongside his brother Shawn (physical and mental state notwithstanding).

Antrel Rolle, FS, Arizona Cardinals

 

Antrel Rolle celebrates the overpayment in his future

Bonus: $4 million
Due Date: March 5th

Rolle made the Pro Bowl for the first time in 2009, which is great timing for him, since his big roster bonus, huge salary ($8.1 million in 2010) and hitting all the escalators in his rookie deal make it impossible for the Cardinals to pay him everything he's due. This means he'll either restructure, get released, or get a trade. The restructured deal needs to contain some serious goodies for him, since he has no motivation to make a deal right now. Being released or traded would mean a new deal, which would likely be in the top ten safety deals in the NFL, thanks to his age and recent productivity. I wouldn't want to be the Cardinals contract guy right now, with Rolle, Anquan Boldin, Darnell Dockett and Karlos Dansby all popular, productive and lining up outside his office. If he is traded, Miami could be a landing spot, since their free safety Gibril Wilson was a predictable disappointment in 2009, and Rolle was a successful college player in Miami.

You Should Retire

Guys, you've been great. You've broken records, won Super Bowls, been heroes, and made your families proud. But now, it's over. You're shadows of your former selves. Instead of carrying on too long, go gracefully. Don't rage against the dying of the light, or the dwindling of your yards-per-carry. Don't be Shaun Alexander. Be Barry Sanders. Don't leave us with the memory of the year you played for the Chiefs and embarrassed yourself.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers (for now, at least)

 

A familiar sight: Tomlinson stuffed at the line of scrimmage. In 2006, he would have scored a 96-yard TD and saved the rainforest

Make no mistake, LT will not have a lightning bolt on his uniform next season, unless he makes an unexpected decision to play for the '79 Detroit Pistons, or the Nazis. I remember saying to a friend back in the '06 season that Tomlinson's average stat line was something like 20 rushes for 150 yards and 3 TDs, 5 receptions for 50 yards and another 2 TDs, 1 pass for 10 yards and a TD, one orphan saved from a burning building, one cure for cancer, and one terrorist plot foiled in the nick of time. In 2009, his actual average stat line was 16 carries for 52 yards, less than 1 TD, one reception for 7.7 yards, and bunch of pissed-off Chargers fans. It's not pretty to see the downside of a running back's career, but it happens to the best of them. Remember Marshall Faulk's last couple of years? I hope you don't, because they take the gloss off of a surefire Hall-of-Fame career. Emmitt Smith the Cardinal? Tony Dorsett in Denver? Eric Dickerson with the Raiders or Falcons? Running backs have a habit of holding on too long, thinking they can recapture the greatness they had. But whether it's caused by slowing down, injuries, or lack of talent around them, it never happens. I still think it's early enough for Tomlinson to retire, and for all of us to only remember the unbelievable player he was from 2001-2007. But the smart money says he laces them up for another year, with the Seahawks, or the Chiefs, or the Bears, or some other also-ran. More's the pity.

Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

 

Westbrook: "Ouch, my ankle/achilles/groin/knee/brain" (delete as appropriate)

I could write something, or you could just read the Tomlinson section again. It's basically the same, except with more concussions. I actually think there's a decent chance Westbrook reads the writing on the wall, and hangs it up, though. The factor here is that the Eagles have a ready-made replacement in LeSean McCoy. His name has four separate capital letters, and you can't say that about too many people.


Flozell Adams, OT, Dallas Cowboys

 

Flozell Adams grapples with Justin Tuck. Tuck beat him on an inside stunt, and strip-sacked Tony Romo

Adams was memorably described as a 'dirtbag' by Giants DE Justin Tuck after New York's win in week 13. Adams pushed Tuck from behind after the play was dead, causing a melee. He was fined four times overall in the 2009 season, for offences including kicking Julius Peppers (I'm pretty sure most of Carolina wants to do that, though). What was lost in the mess, though, is that Adams isn't actually any good anymore. The Cowboys O-line got Tony Romo sacked 34 times, many of them coming through the turnstile that is now the left side. This included Ray Edwards getting three of the Vikings' six in the divisional playoff game that ended Dallas's season, and Elvis Dumervil spending a lot of quality time with Romo in week 4. Doug Free played well enough during his 7-week stint filling in for injured RT Marc Colombo, and Adams is due $5 million in 2010. There's probably another disappointing year in this story, though.

Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina Panthers

 

Jake Delhomme does a spot-on impression of all Carolina fans

This man is now battling only JaMarcus Russell to be the worst QB in the NFL. A scary stat (for Panthers fans): Chris Johnson had only 11 fewer yards rushing than Delhomme had passing in 2009. Johnson had 6 more TDs, too. Interesting theory: Carolina would have been better playing DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart in the wildcat all season, and running it on every down. Even more frightening: Carolina paid Delhomme over $6.3 million in 2009. The most frightening thing you'll hear all week: Carolina is due to pay Delhomme $11.76 million in 2010. Eleven million dollars! Eleven million! I think I'm going to have a stroke. Someone get me Marty Hurney's phone number. I feel like playing some quarterback, and I hear he'll give $42 million contracts to anyone. On a more serious note, Delhomme is simply not an NFL-caliber QB anymore. He's not going to get any better from here. Matt Moore looked good in the last 5 games of the season, and there's no reason for Carolina not to move on. There's also no shame in retiring for Delhomme. He's overachieved massively in his career. A Super Bowl and a Pro Bowl appearance are way beyond what someone with his talent level can expect to achieve - most guys with his talent level never get past backup status. Hard work and intelligence got him to the top level, albeit briefly.

Assorted others who are really, really old

 

John Carney, rookie year

Fun fact: when John Carney first kicked in the NFL, Reagan was president, U2 released The Joshua Tree, the Nike Air Max was first designed, Rashard Mendenhall, Tim Tebow, and Darren McFadden were born, and Andy Warhol, Fred Astaire and Liberace died... As much as he was a personal favourite of mine, nobody wants Jeff Garcia, or will ever want him again...Bobby Engram, Joey Galloway, Isaac Bruce: still looking for jobs, won't find them... Muhsin Muhammad: saved by his blocking... Terrell Owens: probably has one more year left... Lawyer Milloy, Grady Jackson, Todd Collins: give it up...

Gone too soon

Gaines Adams, 1983-2010

Chicago Bears defensive end Gaines Adams died this morning in Greenwood, South Carolina, aged only 26. His death appears to have been caused by an enlarged heart, which triggered a heart attack. I remember seeing Adams in his first season in Tampa Bay, and thinking that he had a bright future in the game.

Adams, as he should be remembered, sacking Kyle Orton

Fixing the Patriots

The dynasty. The greatest team of the decade. The team with the perfect regular season. The unreal offense. The legends: Brady, Moss, Welker.

The guys who got completely dominated by the Ravens, and are one-and-done in the playoffs this year.

Something is rotten in the state of Massachusetts, and head coach Bill Belichick has eight months to figure out what it is. When evaluating a team, you need to break it down into three key areas: players, coaching, and scheme. So let's do it.

"We need more videotape"

Players

New England is a team, like any other, with strengths and weaknesses, but they seem to be magnified here. They have amazing strengths - the best 1-2 combination of wide receivers in the NFL, an all-world quarterback, some outstanding players on the offensive line, one of the best nose tackles in the NFL, and an excellent young inside linebacker and defensive signal-caller. They also have some glaring flaws. Their running back stable is weak, their outside linebackers have disappointed, and their secondary is one of the worst in the entire league. So how do you begin to fix it?

Offense

The Patriots have 4 selections in the first two rounds of the 2010 draft (22, 44, 47, 53). They're in a good position to make some moves, and Belichick excels at this. I'd be looking at packaging some of those picks and offering them to a rebuilding team (St Louis, for example) in exchange for an established running back (Steven Jackson), or trying to make a deal with Carolina for Jonathan Stewart. It's entirely possible that neither team would want to play ball, however. The current RB roster features Laurence Maroney (lacks burst, doesn't run with any anger) Fred Taylor (hurt most of the year), Sammy Morris (the definition of average) and Kevin Faulk (a third down pass catcher only). Something needs to be done here. As far as I'm concerned, Maroney should be cut. Taylor gets another shot to see if he can do it if he's healthy. Morris can stay as a cheap backup. Faulk plays an important role. What's missing? A number one option - they're a bunch of role players and backups. A legitimate rushing threat would allow the Patriots to run some power O runs, and take the pressure off of Brady, Moss and Welker. It was too easy to make the 2009 Patriots one-dimensional.

Laurence Maroney delivers a vicious fluff-arm before hitting a linebacker, getting stuffed for no gain and turning to dust

In the WRs, Moss and Welker are obviously all-world, regardless of what a few hacks muttered about Moss around week 15. The problem is at no. 3. Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis both tried and failed to replace the underrated Jabar Gaffney. Julian Edelman is a capable backup for Welker, but the other receivers (Isaiah Stanback, Brandon Tate, Matthew Slater, Sam Aiken) are either wildly inexperienced, or special teamers only. At least one more player, preferably a deep threat, is needed here. The bad news is that Bill Belichick has a miserable record of drafting receivers. The hits: Deion Branch. The misses: Chad Jackson, P.K Sam, Bethel Johnson. My favourite is Jackson - they traded their 52nd and 75th picks in '06 for the Packers' 36th pick to take him. He flamed out. The Packers used those picks to get Greg Jennings and Jason Spitz, both of whom are still on the roster. Jennings has been stellar at times, Spitz is a solid backup at center. Let no-one tell you that Belichick never blows it. A better option might be to pick up another WR in free agency. Malcom Floyd of the Chargers will be a free agent, and is still rough around the edges, but could be an awesome weapon. Antonio Bryant has shown that he can be huge, given the right QB. The free agency situation will become clearer in the coming weeks.

Chad Jackson. Not pictured: healthy hamstring, groin or ACL

In the rest of the offense, the o-line is in the upper echelon of the league, with guards Logan Mankins and Stephen Neal particularly good. The TEs are weak, but the Patriots use their tight ends primarily as chip blockers. I'd like to take a second to predict that '09 second-rounder Sebastian Vollmer will soon be regarded as one of the top OTs in the game, and will lead to LT Matt Light looking for alternative employment sooner rather than later.

Sebastian Vollmer. Remember this man. He's about to make your best pass-rusher disappear.

Defense

There are much more significant problems on this side of the ball. Starting up front, getting NT Vince Wilfork a new deal has to be the first priority. With him, this defense is disappointing. Without him, it would be disastrous. The DEs are above-average, now Richard Seymour is gone. Seymour was awesome at times, but was past his peak. Getting a first-round pick for him will seem like a good deal when we're looking back in a few years, especially since Oakland has a habit of making great players disappear. Ty Warren can be very effective when healthy, but he's rarely that these days. Mike Wright and Jarvis Green are both able backup types, pressed into service more frequently in 2009. Draft help here would be good. Carlos Dunlap of Florida, perhaps?

Vince Wilfork. It's impossible not to call him a big, fat bastard. But you know, not to his face.

The first major problem area is in the linebackers, where only Jerod Mayo is unquestionably starter material. Even he was less effective in 2009, as he missed most of four games with a sprained MCL, and appeared tentative at times after his return. Still, he's the defensive signal-caller in only his second year, and will make many Pro Bowls in the future. That's where the good news ends. The other inside 'backer is undrafted '08 rookie Gary Guyton, who sometimes looks like a diamond in the rough, and at other times looks like, well, an undrafted guy. A superb athlete, but his football smarts have yet to catch up. Mayo's physical problems and Guyton's mental ones led to the Patriots rushing defense getting gashed for innumerable big plays in 2009. The main problem involved them not stepping up to fill gaps and support Wilfork and the DEs, leading to them giving up big runs, as Ray Rice ably demonstrated last weekend.

The biggest problem in the front seven is with the outside linebackers. Adalius Thomas, one of 2007's splashiest free-agent acquisitions, was a healthy scratch on more than one occasion, missing a team meeting, criticising head coach Bill Belichick, and tallying only three sacks. It's unlikely he'll be on the roster in 2010. On the other side, Tully Banta-Cain was a backup in his previous New England stint, hardly set the world on fire in San Francisco, and now he's a starter? I don't buy it, but his 9.5 sacks earn him another look next year. There's also Derrick Burgess, who was a waste of money, but at least not much money. 5 sacks was not enough for a guy looking to resurrect his career as a premier pass-rusher. The backup there is Pierre Woods, a guy who should be a special-teams only player. He's like a lower-quality version of Guyton.

The answer here is to draft better-quality linebackers. On the inside, perhaps Florida's Brandon Spikes. Additionally, the Arizona Cardinals' Karlos Dansby is a free agent, and one hell of a player, but Belichick may feel that he's been burned once by a big-money free agent linebacker, and he's not going to let it happen again. Here's a look at Spikes, who'll probably be coming off the board by round two on draft day.



On the outside, Jerry Hughes of Texas Christian will probably be a second-round guy too, and has registered 26 sacks in the last 2 seasons. They could try to move up and take Sergio Kindle of Texas, but I'm figuring he'll be gone by the 15th pick. They could trade up, but I'm not sure Kindle is "can't miss" enough to warrant it. He reminds me of Buffalo's Aaron Maybin, who was last seen on milk cartons in upstate NY. Even so, here's a video of a really pretty sack by Kindle on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts.



New England ranked 23rd in sacks in 2009, and this played into the next problem - the secondary. If you don't get enough pass rush, you'll give the opposing quarterback enough time to victimize your cornerbacks. This happened with alarming frequency in 2009, as the Patriots secondary gave up too many big plays, including 8 plays of 20 yards or more against the Saints in week 12. The starters at cornerback are Leigh Bodden and Jonathan Wilhite - both of whom are, generously, no better than league-average. Wilhite is only a second-year guy, and has a lot of time to improve. Bodden peaked with the Browns in 2007, but was a capable-enough short-term solution this year. New England has to get more from second-rounder Darius Butler in 2010 - he was a ball-hawk in college, and showed some promise in '09. Backup Shawn Springs is washed up, and most likely won't be back next year. All he does is take playing time away from youngsters Wilhite, Butler, and Terrence Wheatley. In the safeties, Brandon Meriweather made the Pro Bowl as a replacement, but I still think he'd be better at free safety than strong safety. This would allow him to keep the play in front of him, and let Patrick Chung on to the field as a strong safety. Chung saw way too much action on special teams for a 34th overall pick. This would also leave James Sanders and Brandon McGowan as backups, where they should be.

In the draft, I like Perrish Cox of Oklahoma State. He's a physical guy, and is a big threat in the return game, another area in which the Patriots struggled in 2009. Sooner fans may want to skip the next video. Dunta Robinson of the Houston Texans is a free agent, but I'm not sure he's worth the salary he wants. Belichick never pays his cornerbacks anyway.



Coaching & Scheme

Bill Belichick is no sacred cow around here - he's certainly not above criticism for his work, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots just fired/mutually terminated/accepted the resignation of/flushed defensive co-ordinator Dean Pees (whose name surely begs the question "where?"), but the fact is that this is Darth Hoodie's defense, and Pees was just running it. Not running it particularly well, sure, but just running it. I don't see an obvious answer on who's going to replace him. I was leaning towards Al Groh, but he's just joined Georgia Tech as DC. Internally, line coach Pepper Johnson (another great name) and linebackers coach Matt Patricia are candidates. The bigger problem is that it seems Belichick's defensive scheme, once state-of-the-art, is now outdated. The defense hasn't really been good since 2006, and there have been a significant number of talented players playing in it since then. It might be time for Belichick to let go, and bring in a guy who can make some changes.  I'd stick with the overall shape of the defense, but someone like Dick Jauron or Jim Mora Jr. could bring a fresh approach. Both are seen as 'damaged goods' after losing head coach gigs recently, but have track records of building good defenses.

On the offensive side, I'm a firm believer that Belichick needs a strong offensive co-ordinator to curb his naturally passive/aggressive instincts. Without Josh McDaniels, we would never have seen Randy Moss in New England. Bill O'Brien is in no position to overrule his boss on offensive issues, leading to a step backwards offensively this year. O'Brien isn't even the OC, he's just the WRs coach and play-caller. Too many times in '09, the Pats dialed up a deep pass play on third down; going for 56 yards when 6 were needed. Charlie Weis would have been good, but he'll be waddling on the Kansas City touchline in 2010. I don't see a change coming here this year, but it would help.

New Kansas City offensive co-ordinator, Rodney Dangerfield

To sum up, the Patriots need to draft a defensive end, an outside linebacker, an inside linebacker, and a cornerback. They need to trade for a running back. They need to pick up a free-agent deep threat WR. They need to start Patrick Chung at strong safety, and move Brandon Meriweather to free safety. They need an offensive co-ordinator and a defensive co-ordinator.

Sounds like a mess? This is on a team that finished 10-6 and made the playoffs - be thankful I didn't write about the St Louis Rams instead.

The best piece of sports journalism you'll read in 2010

And it's from GQ, of all places. Jason Fagone investigates Marvin Harrison, The Dirtiest Player. They may have been bad, but at least Michael Vick, Chris Henry, Tank Johnson, Lawrence Taylor, Lawrence Phillips, Plaxico Burress, Pacman Jones and Ray Lewis never killed anyone. Hold on, scratch that last one.

"Not guilty, your honour"

And while I'm on stuff I got right

"I must disagree, my good sir. My throwback jersey is entirely more badass than thine"

In this post, I mentioned that Randy Moss and Brandon Meriweather should be disappointed to be missing the Pro Bowl. Well since Wes Welker and Jairus Byrd of Buffalo have been injured, Moss and Meriweather will be going to Miami as alternates. Hurrah for me!

From the saw-it-coming desk

My first post on this blog talked about the coaches on the hot seat. Let's see how I did...

Jim Zorn expresses his feelings at not having to coach Jason Campbell anymore

Jim Zorn

Got fired and replaced by Mike Shanahan this week, and it was never in any doubt. I'd credit myself with predicting this one, but that would be like predicting the sun rising.  He'll be back in the game soon enough, probably as a offensive co-ordinator, perhaps in Seattle, where he was QB coach from 2001-2007, and a QB himself from 1976-1984. As an aside, I also derided GM Vinny Cerrato, who fell on his sword a couple of weeks later. Score!

Cannot: turn around Bills franchise. Can: probably fuck you up 

Perry Fewell

Ralph Wilson cleared the decks in Buffalo this week, firing the entire coaching staff. Fewell has interviewed for the head coach's job, but he is ranked somewhere alongside Dennis Green and Rich Kotite in his chances of actually getting it. He'll probably be a defensive co-ordinator next year, most likely with the New York Giants. Again, this was too easy to call.

"And by next offseason I'll be this fat"

Eric Mangini

This is the first one I'm giving myself credit for. I said "If you're going to give the guy a mandate to tear it down and rebuild, you can't let him do half the job and fire him." This week, new Browns team president (football czar? Parcellinator?) Mike Holmgren spared Mangini, saying "In my opinion, Eric has gained the respect and admiration of players, coaches and others in the organization, and with him continuing to lead the team I feel that we are headed in the right direction." You can't argue with winning the last 4 games - the Browns looked better in every phase, fought hard, and looked like they believed in themselves again. Mangini earned it, and I predicted it.

Do the funky Coughlin

Tom Coughlin

I said Coughlin would survive, and "Co-ordinators Kevin Gilbride and Bill Sheridan are in the crosshairs instead." Sheridan was fired this week, after one season on the job, and a defense that gave up 40 points on five occasions. Gilbride can count himself lucky, although his punishment may be replacing...

Tom Cable

Not gone yet, but in the waiting room. The fact that the Raiders' 5-11 mess was regarded as somewhat of a success tells you everything about the reduced expectations in Oakland these days. JaMarcus Russell was awful in every conceivable way, they couldn't run or pass with any consistency, and the defense, usually their saving grace, was sub-par. Cable was better than Lane Kiffin or the second coming of Art Shell, so he still has a chance to survive. Not a good chance, though.

I got it wrong: Gary Kubiak survived, thanks to a late-season run of four wins. His team showed improvement, but there has to be a playoff appearance next year, surely... Wade Phillips takes a hot team into the playoffs, and with a decent run, he's coming back next year. Saved by a clutch December from Romo and the boys; who'da thunk it... John Fox is safe for a while thanks to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but I'll say it again: Jake Delhomme will get you fired...

The jury's still out: Lovie Smith looks like he's staying, but I was right about Ron Turner. He'll likely be replaced by USC offensive co-ordinator and Cutler favourite Jeremy Bates...

Pro Bowl Bums

OK, not bums exactly. The Pro Bowl rosters were released yesterday, and as usual, some names just leap out as being undeserving.

Jason Peters OT, Philadephia Eagles

Somehow, Peters has acquired the reputation of being a great offensive tackle. He hasn't been good since 2007, his last good season with the Bills. In 2008, he wanted a new deal, was as resilient as wet toilet paper, and almost got poor Trent Edwards killed. This season, he's been league-average. And now he's starting in the Pro Bowl, and Donald Penn of the Buccaneers, the best OT in the NFC, will sit at home.

As an aside, Penn is better than Jonathan Stinchcomb of the Saints, and Bryant McKinnie of the Vikings, both of whom are going to Miami. McKinnie got eaten alive by Julius Peppers in week 15, but that was after Pro Bowl voting closed. He's lucky. If he'd done that in week 12, he'd have had no chance. Stinchcomb is above-average, but is that what the Pro Bowl is about?

Asante Samuel CB, Philadelphia Eagles

I honestly swear to you, I don't have a hate on for the Eagles - actually, I think they've overcome some difficulties to have a great season, especially on offense. Asante Samuel making the Pro Bowl is purely a selection based on numbers - he has 9 interceptions. That's great, but the stats don't show that Samuel is an ineffective, arm-tackling half-asser when playing the run, and that his love of jumping routes means he gets beaten by double moves on a fairly regular basis. I suppose it comes down to my personal preference for bump-and-run corners like Nnamdi Asomugha of the Raiders, but I'd like any defensive player on my team to be able to tackle. It doesn't seem like a lot to ask. Either Samuel's teammate Sheldon Brown, or Brent Grimes of the Falcons would have been better real-life choices.

Ray Lewis LB, Baltimore Ravens

This one is purely a reputation pick. Lewis made it to age 34 without showing any signs of decline, which is thoroughly remarkable for a high-impact player like a middle linebacker. 2009, though, was the year age started to take its toll, and it has been reflected in the overall play of the Ravens defense. It's not a unit to be feared anymore, despite having all its major pieces still in place, particularly in the front seven. Lewis is still a good player, and one I'd want on my team for many reasons, but 2009 was not a year where he reached a  Pro Bowl level of performance. Although you probably haven't seen a lot of him, Kirk Morrison of the Raiders has been quietly excellent all season, and although he couldn't have replaced Lewis (wrong conference), it's scandalous that Washington's London Fletcher still hasn't made a Pro Bowl. The guy is the Redskins D, no matter what certain fat, underperforming nose tackles might think.

Notes
Not sure about DeAngelo Williams - he's great, but I think Frank Gore of the 49ers is more important to his team, and has made a bigger impact on their overall record this year... I know it's sacrilege, but does Adrian Peterson really deserve it? He's been less than stellar in recent weeks, thanks to the pass-first play calling... You probably won't find a bigger Wes Welker fan than me, but I think Randy Moss is more important to the Patriots - without him, Welker wouldn't be looking at 130+ receptions this year. Moss clears out the safeties and opens space for Welker underneath. Plus, Moss has played hurt all season... Jake Long: good, but not great yet... Ed Reed has missed quite a few games, and has been less than his usual self due to injuries - is he Pro Bowl material this year? I say no, but Brandon Meriweather can justifiably feel cheated to miss out... Last one: Giants LB/special teamer Chase Blackburn should be in there, he's a difference-maker who plays ridiculously hard. Every special teams coach in the league would love to have him. He makes plays on defense, too...

And while we're on running backs...

... it looks like Jamal Lewis is done. He suffered 'post-concussion symptoms' and has been placed on season-ending injured reserve. He'd previously announced that he was retiring at the end of the season. Lewis has several successful businesses outside of football, and has seemingly had his spirit crushed by playing for the hopeless Browns, and Eric 'The Secret' Mangini.

Lewis will retire with career totals of 10,607 rushing yards, 58 rushing touchdowns, 4.2 yards per carry, and 81 yards per game. He led the NFL in rushing in Baltimore's Super Bowl-winning year of 2003, with 2066 yards, the second-greatest single season ever. He also made the Pro Bowl and was an All-Pro selection that year.

Go go gadget stiff-arm!

I personally always liked Lewis, who ran hard even when he was on an arrestingly poor Browns team the last two years.

Whither Reggie?

New Orleans Saints RB and 2005 Heisman winner Reggie Bush counts $8m against the salary cap next season, and simply doesn't make sense to be on their roster next year. Here's a look at his production since getting drafted second overall by New Orleans in 2006:

He ain't pullin' up no tree stumps, as they say in places where people use such homilies. In his most active season (2007), he averaged 3.7 yards per carry. To put that in perspective, that would rank him 30th in the NFL this season (among RBs with at least 100 carries), behind such all-star names as Tim Hightower and Justin Fargas, behind Brandon Jacobs (who flat out sucks ass this season), and most importantly, behind the two other RBs on his team, Pierre Thomas (2nd in the NFL with 5.6 ypc) and Mike Bell (17th with 4.4 ypc). You don't pay a 3.7 ypc running back $8m a season, no matter how many Heismans he has at home.

Now, you sit and think about what you did.

Of course, Bush defenders will point out that he averages 5.0 ypc this season, but that's on only 55 rushes, fewer than such luminaries as Justin Forsett, Jamaal Charles and Tashard Choice (all of whom average over 5.0 ypc, incidentally). Anyone advocating paying Justin Forsett $8m a season?

I see two options here: either Bush restructures his deal significantly (and I mean significantly), or he's on the street come the end of the Saints' season. Either way, the Saints will not be paying him $8m to get 3.7 ypc, hurt his knee and be on the shelf for at least 6 games. So where does he end up?

New England Patriots
I know the Patriots always get brought up whenever an intriguing, flawed player is available (remember the Michael Vick saga this past summer?), but this one does seem to make some sense. Bill Belichick wouldn't expect 25 carries a game from him (he doesn't expect that from any RB), and would certainly find some creative ways to use him on reverses, screens, and as a slot receiver.  I just doubt whether the Patriots front office would be willing to meet Bush's wage demands. He would be a role player, at best. Belichick uses his RBs completely interchangeably, and the Patriots offense demands a 3rd-down back who can catch reliably and get yards after the catch. Bush could be the new Kevin Faulk.

Oakland Raiders
We all know how Al Davis loves speed. He drafted Darius Heyward-Bey based entirely on his 40 time. He drafted Michael Mitchell based on... forgetting the correct dosage of his meds? Anyway, Bush certainly has the measurables to get Al all hot and bothered. Counting against this one is the fact that Oakland already has three RBs who could potentially start (Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, Michael Bush), but since when has logic played a role in Al Davis' free agency spending? Javon Walker anyone?

Philadelphia Eagles
They already rescued one over-hyped former first overall pick from the football scrap heap, so why not a second overall pick too? I don't see Brian Westbrook being a major factor in Philly next year. Given his age next season (31), history of knee, ankle, and foot problems, and now a repeated concussion issue, I'd say he's a possibility for retirement too. Bush fits the bill as a load-sharer with new starter LeSean McCoy, as he can play the Westbrook role as pass-catcher too.

Great Sporting Bastards: Hines Ward

But he seems like such a nice boy.

 Allow me to clarify. A bastard is not a universally hated figure. In fact, a bastard is loved by his team mates, and adored by his fans. He is hated by fans of every other team, though. He makes it his purpose in life to play dirty, and get under the skin of the opposition. He is often arrogant, but not always. He is often quiet, decent and well-mannered off the field, but not always.

Our first bastard is Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward.

Why he's loved: Ward was a record-setting all-purpose offensive threat for the Georgia Bulldogs, but slipped in the 1998 draft due to concerns over his left knee. He was taken 92nd overall, and worked his way into the Steelers' lineup the hard way. He blocked, tackled and covered on special teams. He gained a reputation for being the hardest-working guy on the team. He still has that reputation 181 starts,  866 receptions, 77 touchdowns, and 2 Super Bowl rings later. He won MVP honors at Super Bowl XL, and even today, at the age of 33, is still Pittsburgh's number one receiver, no matter how much Santonio Holmes may disagree. More importantly, he founded the Hines Ward Helping Hands Foundation, a group dedicated to ending discrimination against mixed-race children in South Korea. Watch highlights of Super Bowl XL, including the end-around reverse that got Ward the MVP.

Why he's hated: Try to find anyone in the cities of Cincinnati, Baltimore or Cleveland that has a single kind word to say about him. To opposing fans, he's not hard-working, he's just plain dirty. Just ask Bengals linebacker Keith Rivers.



That block - or assault, whichever you prefer - actually prompted a rule change in the NFL. Wide receivers are no longer to block defensive players from the blind side; this is known as the Hines Ward rule, ensuring that Ward's name will forever be linked with dirty hits. That hit broke Rivers' jaw in two places. Ward was voted 'Dirtiest Player in the NFL' in a Sports Illustrated poll of 296 current NFL players. He comfortably beat Albert Haynesworth for first place. Bengals safety Chinedum Ndukwe commented "That's what he's known for. He's a blind-side guy." Most recently, Ward questioned the toughness of QB Ben Roethlisberger for not playing with a concussion. What a bastard.

NFL coaches - who's right, who's wrong, who's left and who's leaving

Looking at the standings right now, it's hard to predict that any NFL coaches won't see the end of the season in their current jobs. Yes, Cleveland is beyond awful, but Eric Mangini is in his first season, and if owner Randy Lerner has any sense, he'll at least give Mangini another year to build something in the empty space where the Browns should be. Jim Zorn's hot-seat at 3-8 Washington has long since melted, but the options to replace him from within are frightening - Greg Blache, whose defense has been decent, but has struggled mightily vs. the pass, Sherman Smith, whose offense has been dismal (25th in the NFL), or temporary play-caller Sherman Lewis (Daniel Snyder knows you can never have too many Shermans (Shermen?)), who has had little impact.

So its likely that the in-season firings in the NFL will begin and end with Buffalo's Dick Jauron, who shockingly, couldn't win with an offensive line which is mainly theoretical, and a QB who can't make a throw beyond the end of his own nose.

The way I see it, after week 12 of the NFL season, the coaches who are sweating:

The dead men walking

Jim Zorn, Washington Redskins
This one is so inevitable, it's surprising that Zorn isn't just doing bizarre stuff for fun. I would. They can't score points on the ground or through the air, and they can't stop opposing passers. The run defense has been good, but what's the point in half a defense? It's like digging half a moat. Given the success of Hunter Smith, the 'Skins punter, on trick plays, I'd advocate making the fake punt their base formation on offense. The guy is a dual threat that gives defensive co-ordinators nightmares. With the meddling of owner Daniel Snyder, and the ineffectual kowtowing of GM Vinny Cerrato, attracting a candidate who can turn this ship around is unlikely.

Perry Fewell, Buffalo Bills
I know that Fewell seems to have his players playing hard for him, and that makes him a possibility for the head coach gig (especially given the penny-pinching nature of the Bills), but has no-one realized that this always happens? I remember people saying "Tom Cable seems to have his players playing hard for him," and "Jim Haslett seems to have his players playing hard for him." The next thing you know, you're conceding 49 points at home against the Patriots. Perry Fewell is not the answer. Drafting a left tackle and a QB was the answer, but the Bills figured they couldn't live without DE Aaron Maybin and his 6 tackles, 2 assists and 0 sacks so far. This franchise badly needs leadership in the draft, because three successes in the last three drafts (Jairus Byrd, Leodis McKelvin, Paul Posluszny) is a reflection of how poorly the franchise is performing overall.

Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders
It's difficult to do this without making Al Davis jokes, but that's just what I'm attempting. Wish me luck. Cable is a victim of his own behavior (whatever happened with Randy Hanson, the bad press surrounding his history of domestic violence), a quarterback disaster approaching Ryan Leaf proportions (JaMarcus Russell's completion percentage has actually fallen each year since he was a rookie, while his interceptions have risen inversely), and dismal drafting that beggars belief (the closest I could find to a draft success in the last 5 years was Zach Miller, an above-average TE). The Raiders roster has precisely two players you'd want on your team: CB Nnamdi Asomugha (best press corner in the league, hands-down), and punter Shane Lechler. Seriously. That the punter even enters the conversation should be enough to make Al Davis step down immediately, and burn those damn sweatsuits. Crap. It's impossible not to make a joke about him. The guy is a walking punch-line. A leathery, leathery punch line. In conclusion, the problems here go far beyond Cable, who, in his defense, gets some competitive play from his team intermittently. But the coach is there to take the fall for Davis, and fall he will.

Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans
Kubiak's failing has not been bottomless ineptitude, as with Jauron or Zorn, but rather barren, endless mediocrity. He has taken a team overflowing with talent and made it considerably less than the sum of its parts. Head coaches dream about offenses with two elite pass-catchers like Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. Kevin Walter's no slouch as a second receiver, and Steve Slaton is a dual threat at RB. The offensive line mostly keeps QB Matt Schaub clean (21 sacks taken is good for 12th in the league). So why is this team 5-6, and flattering to deceive yet again? Well, they can't run the ball or stop the run, which is a pretty good recipe for going 8-8 again, at best. They could fire defensive co-ordinator Frank Bush Sr., but their defensive problems boil down to a lack of talent on the line, which is a draft issue, which is the domain of the head coach. Also, they lose twice to the Colts every year, which pisses everyone off. When Kubiak goes, it will be entirely justified. He's holding the team back, rather than the other way around, a la Oakland.

The possibilities

John Fox, Carolina Panthers
Have you seen the Panthers this year? They are awful in just about every phase of the game. The biggest problem here is Jake Delhomme's contract. Delhomme has to go. He just can't make the throws anymore. Unfortunately, Carolina gave him a massive new contract last offseason, in the hope that it would rip a hole in the space-time continuum and make his elbow injury not have happened. This dastardly plan was foiled, and now the Panthers are stuck with the worst starting QB in the league (yes, I now think Bruce Gradkowski and Brady Quinn are better), and a head coach who is inextricably linked with the decision to award him his mindbending contract. One has to go. If the franchise is smart, they will find a way to shuffle Delhomme out the door (possibly into retirement), and keep Fox, who has done a good job, and deserves a shot at turning it around. I'm not sure they're smart.

Eric Mangini, Cleveland Browns
The Browns are bad. Historically bad. They rank dead last in offense (11 points and 231 yards per game), and 31st in defense (giving up 25 points and 393 yards per game). Think about that. They're losing, on average, by 2 touchdowns. They average a comfortable loss. Somehow, they managed to win a game, that 6-3 atrocity in Buffalo in week 5. As bad as they may be, to fix something that's built wrong, you have to tear it down. That's what Eric Mangini has done. He's gotten rid of Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards, neither of Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson will be starting there next year, Jamal Lewis is retiring, and the staff has been completely overhauled. If you're going to give the guy a mandate to tear it down and rebuild, you can't let him do half the job and fire him. As much as I think Mangini in Cleveland will be reminiscent of Marinelli in Detroit (high-character guys playing low-talent football), you have to at least let the story play out. The danger for Mangini is whether owner Randy Lerner will have the guts to ignore the calls of the fans and media to fire him.

Wade Phillips, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are in a state of flux, which given the age of their roster, is not a good thing. At times they've looked good, at others they've looked Browns-esque. They've somehow dragged themselves to 8-3, which is frankly astonishing to anyone who has seen a significant amount of Cowboys football this season. They have been helped by the unexpected weakness of their division (the aforementioned Redskins, plus the unpredictable Eagles and slumping Giants). This year has the faint odor of last chances around it, both for Wade Phillips as head coach, and for some of the members of the roster (LT Flozell Adams, LB Keith Brooking, and C Andre Gurode are noticeably in decline). Surely, this is the year when Phillips and Romo have to achieve something, right? Well, we thought last year was too.

The outliers

Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears
As much as his Super Bowl appearance adds luster to his resume, there's only so much awful that a major franchise like Chicago can take. We all thought that the only thing missing from the Bears last year was a legit QB. Well now they have one, and the franchise has taken a step back. The defense has turned from a strength into a weakness (Brian Urlacher made their Tampa 2 system work, and without him, it's a giant liability). Matt Forte has regressed (the Bears are last in the league in rush yards per game), and Cutler has thrown 20 picks and only 16 TDs. I think Smith survives, however, and OC Ron Turner and DC Bob Babich take the bullets for him.

Tom Coughlin, New York Giants
I know he won a Super Bowl two short years ago, but with the experience, talent, and systems in place in New York, 6-5 is a long way from good enough. Like in Chicago, everyone has taken a step back this year, from their much-heralded lines (the trenches on both side of the ball are underperforming), to Eli Manning (although his plantar fasciitis is a mitigating circumstance), and particularly RB Brandon Jacobs. When did Jacobs stop running downhill? When did he stop punishing safeties? Again, like in Chicago, Coughlin gets another life, even if the Giants slump to 6-10. Co-ordinators Kevin Gilbride and Bill Sheridan are in the crosshairs instead.